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Analysis

Written analysis drawn from the podcast, grouped by subject. 21 pieces across 9 episodes, organised into 7 running topics.

Episode 14 ·

Drones Come Third: It Is a Command Problem

A Third Corps commander ranks leadership and training above drones. Dmytro Putiata explains why Mykhailo Drapatyi inherits a centralised army whose unmanned systems forces can be asked, not ordered.

Episode 14 ·

Why One Interceptor per Missile Is a Coin Flip

Rob Lee on why a single Patriot interceptor against an Iskander 9M723 is often a 50% guess, why SAMP/T, factory strikes and Firepoint offer no quick fix, and Dmytro Putiata on knowing where Russian launchers hide but being unable to catch them.

Episode 1 ·

The Invasion Buildup Was Visible on TikTok

Rob Lee on how civilian TikTok videos of Russian trains, a record Black Sea naval deployment, 85% of BTGs moved and no covering exercise separated the pre-invasion buildup from the war scares of 2016 to 2018.

Episode 4 ·

Middle Strike Hits Air Defence, Not Bunkers

Rob Lee on why Ukraine now holds the upper hand in middle strike, from FP-2 drones with 100 kg warheads to Starlink cut off from Russian Molniya, and Dmytro Putiata on why buried command posts need cruise missiles, not drones.

Episode 14 ·

Ground-Launched Missiles Give Seconds of Warning

Iskander, KN-23 and S-400 ground-attack missiles can land seconds after the alarm. Rob Lee and Dmytro Putiata on North Korean launchers under the Moscow Military District, the Patriot shortage, and why Starlink-connected Hornet drones could hunt Iskander launchers within 500 km of the border.

Episode 14 ·

Hitting a Refinery Is Not the Same as Stopping It

Deep-strike drones are not precision weapons: 15 to 30 percent get through and one missed a factory by 100 metres. Dmytro Putiata on why burning refineries keep working, and the economic campaign both sides are now fighting.

Episode 15 ·

Nobody Knows Where Russia's Breaking Point Is

Rob Lee on Russian attrition now running level with recruitment, why that stops new units forming, what mobilisation would change, and the Azov-direction assault that showed Russia learning tactically.

Episode 16 ·

Russia Removed the Human From the Loop

Brave1's CEO says Russia is fielding fully automated drones before the AI is good enough, that they are destroying civilian objects, and that Ukraine keeps a human in the loop at a real cost.

Episode 5 ·

Ukraine Has Narrowed the Deep-Strike Gap

Rob Lee on 1,000 drones in a night, St Petersburg hit during its own economic forum, why Russian glide bombs cannot reach past the front, and the FP-2 doing an air force's job.

Episode 17 ·

Russia's Hybrid War Reaches Germany

Rob Lee on why Russia sabotages Europe while losing in Ukraine, why the Baltic Fleet being committed matters, and why sanctions removed the restraint that used to hold.

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